Tesla’s Giga Press Orders Signal Huge Growth + Texas Batteries, Supercharging

Publicerades den 6 apr 2021
➤ IDRA group discusses Giga Press orders, what does it mean for Tesla?
➤ IDRA video 1: senewss.info/slow/ecTcrtWSj7ywb5U/video
➤ IDRA video 2: senewss.info/slow/ecvaZqV9m9m3sK4/video
➤ Battery cathode plant grading started at Giga Texas
➤ Assessing some rumors on the possible US federal EV tax credit
Tesla makes some changes to Supercharging fees in California as expansion continues
➤ Swell Energy launches virtual power plant in New York
➤ GM announces all-electric Chevy Silverado
➤ SpaceX set to launch another round of Starlink satellites
Twitter: teslapodcast
Patreon: www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast
Tesla Referral: ts.la/robert47283
#Tesla #TSLA #Investing
Plaid producer Who Why
Plaid producer Ice Lakes Investments
Ludicrous producer Fred Hassen
Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Bradford Ferguson
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jeff Sheets
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Editing assistance by Jasem Ashkanani
Music by Evan Schaeffer
Image(s) and/or footage used under license from Shutterstock.com
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives

Kommentarer

  • Well done, Thanks!!

  • ❌❌❌❌People be aware if this SEnewssrs as they are miss leading with their information that they provide you. Don’t take this seriously for an investment as you’ll loose your money. Be cautious don’t trust as this guys they are here to pump the stock stay away and if you need a financial advice pay for it and will be cheaper then taking advice of this channels plus more profitable. Also so you can see your self, check their other videos and you’ll see that they are full of SH.T all the things that they are saying haven’t happen, every time Tesla shares drop, they come up with something else to pump tesla stock shares. Tesla isn’t save to invest. Stay safe

    • Except I started Tesla Daily when TSLA stock was below $70 per share haha. But yes I’d agree everyone should do their own research not blindly follow any SEnewss channel.

  • ❌❌❌❌Las personas deben estar atentas a estos SEnewssrs, ya que se pierden el liderazgo con la información que le brindan. No tome esto en serio como una inversión, ya que perderá su dinero. Tenga cuidado, no confíe, ya que estos chicos están aquí para bombear las acciones, manténgase alejado y si necesita un asesoramiento financiero, pague por él y será más barato que tomar el asesoramiento de estos canales y más rentable. También para que puedas verte a ti mismo, mira sus otros videos y verás que están llenos de SH.T todas las cosas que dicen que no han sucedido, cada vez que las acciones de Tesla caen, se les ocurre algo más para bomba de acciones de tesla. Tesla no ahorra para invertir. Mantenerse a salvo

    • Except I started Tesla Daily when TSLA stock was below $70 per share haha. But yes I’d agree everyone should do their own research not blindly follow any SEnewss channel.

  • Great video dude

  • A machine that makes machines. Reminds me of the great Mitch Hedberg, who said there should be gigantic vending machines that dispense vending machines.

  • Is Tesla installing chargers at truck stops for the coming Semi trucks?

  • Why do Ted Cruz still have a job?

  • It seems to me that the IDRA casting machines are a bottleneck for the gigafactory construction process. Giga Berlin alone will need 8, two o which are already being installed. Austin so far appears to get six of which one is already installed. According to my math, that is 14 machines, with only 9 being delivered this year that leaves Tesla four short for the year. Not to mention Shanghai. Also, the section where the Gigapresses are going is the only one not yet enclosed in Berlin. It seems that Tesla is waiting for the machines to be delivered before finishing the roof and walls. At this point, it is holding up completion of the factory and the same might happen in Austin. I think Tesla should buy IDRA and use their money and expertise to increase production. If Tesla plans to use these machines in future gigafactories as well there should be enough demand to keep IDRA busy for years to come with orders just from Tesla. Also, with this technology being so pivotal to Tesla's manufacturing plans, it would be smart to bring this crucial skill in-house. I think there is a good chance this might happen in the future if it hasn't already.

    • IDRA is part of a huge multinational, L.K of Hong Kong that has branches(factories) in Canada and China so the China Plant will supply Tesla China to make Tesla's in China all Chinese manufacture which the Chinese buyers love

  • Great info as usual

  • The more difficult is for Tesla, the more impossible is for others.

  • For me it will be IONIQ 5 since i can use the car as a mobile battery, has HUD and solar roof. Tesla s interior is so basic and sleek it s depressing.

  • Anyone concerned about the macro environment and inflation? As oil cost rise so do the cost of doing business. Let’s face it, Tesla consumes oil to accelerate the transition ( 🤔 ). The tax environment? Will the big players cash the chips before capital gains taxes rise ( assuming they will )? I get the tax credit will be a boost to sales, although overall I think it’s a bad idea as we’re printing money like mad. 🤷🏽‍♀️ just a though I was cleaning my rose colored glasses. 😬

  • TESLA will make the Compact car with unibody Gigapress making one car in one shot.

  • Rob, I think it's worth addressing the tax credits in more detail, there's a general level of confusion/misinformation as to how it impacts the buyer. To be clear, with tax credits it *appears* that the buyers are capturing the whole tax credit. The reality is that it's split with the manufacturer. The manufacturer raises prices to partially offset new tax credits, and lowers prices to partially offset expiring tax credits. This was seen during the wind-down of Tesla's initial 200k tax credit, during which prices were partially lowered to offset the tax credit halving. Otherwise, not lowering prices would have created inefficiencies in matching supply/demand. Expect Tesla to raise prices to partially offset the credit amount if/when the tax credit passes.

  • What the heck is a "Virtual Power Plant"? The power you get isn't real?

  • I wonder when Tesla will start putting more solar in place to help power their Superchargers? That was what Elon originally communicated back in 2013 at launch. This would alleviate time-of-day variable pricing. It would also help support Tesla’s sustainability mission. This doesn’t have to be a priority, but it would be nice to see some progress on this front.

  • THAT'S WHY TESLA IS DOWN 5%.

  • Now imagine a press for casting Giga-presses.

  • Musk has explicitly said that Berlin will use the new architecture. He's also said-either directly or just as the logical conclusion of various statements taken together-that all new vehicles and production going forward would use that new architecture after Berlin does it first. So whether these presses are going to Berlin, Texas, the possibly-new factory in Shanghai, or for retrofitting Fremont, it's extremely likely that they're all for the new architecture. I'm also pretty sure that piece on the structural battery won't use a giga press. It is _much_ smaller, in terms of mass and especially dimensions, than either the front or rear casting, so if it is a single cast piece it would not need nearly as large a casting machine. IF it's a single cast piece; that wasn't specifically said at any time. It looks to me like it's just the frame/riser for the front seats, but since we're not sure what it is and what purpose(s) it will serve, we can't be certain one way or the other. That said, my guess would be that halving is how we should estimate capacity, so the ~650k you stated sounds about right to me.

  • Really wish people would stop thumbs downing this channel

  • It is two pieces for each car. one for the front and one for the rear. slice the number you have in half... there is no casting for the structural battery.

  • Make it so that tax incentive goes to you regardless of your tax bill rather than how it is now that you only get up to your tax bill. Otherwise only the wealthy will get the full benefit.

  • Rob, Chicken Genious Singapore gave you the most awesome of shoutouts, along with other Tesla SEnewssrs :D

  • off topic>> OMG I hope Spacex can get a million humans off the planet like E[ON said TO MARS before humans get millions more of this covid virus and variants

  • If they are doing a a front AND a rear cast, you may need to half your estimates

    • you were far from being alone in that haha

    • @Tesla Daily Yes, sorry. I should wait until the end to comment.

    • I discussed this

  • Listened to the Idra video... they said 3 castings Front ,Back AND Battery ... that could easily be 9 machines = 3 per car type or plant etc... but they spacifically said cast the center battery pack.

  • $10K off my new Cybertruck! Whoo hoo!

  • I think Elon mentioned a target of ~50% growth Tesla plans on using structural battery + 1 front casting + 1 rear casting on model Y In Berlin this year. Model Y in Fremont/Shangaï will probably remain the same with single rear casting only for the foreseeable future, mostly because changing something that works is costly and risky (i.e. S/X refresh Elon hoped to ship in February, Zach in March. We're in April and haven't seen it yet nor the official announcement event of S they spoke off that's presumably before deliveries). If Tesla want to deliver on their production planning, they'll need to start construction of 2-4 new factories in the next 12 months. This leaves very little spare resources to try to improve something that already works.

  • GM = general morons

  • TSLA's back down -$20+ dollars again today down to $671.xx and i'm so sick of this up and down bullshit with the "market"....whereas we never had these issues pre-stock split letting retail investors in...gggrrrr

  • Silverado to start production in 2024.

  • The tax credit needs to be a tax rebate. You only get to take the credit if you have a tax liability. This won’t promote adoption of EVs. A tax rebate will benefit anyone who buys an EV. Another case of government leaders not understanding the best way to achieve a goal.

  • The full castings and 4680s are probably going to be used for Performance or Long Range models only at first. Then work their way to lower priced SKUs over time. Berlin Model Y, Berlin Model 3, Austin Model Y, Semi, Cybertruck, Plaid+. Probably 2 more years before this makes its way to all the Standard Range models.

  • Thank you!

  • European model Y will have both front and rear single piece casting machines. Not sure if the structural battery pack is also a single piece casting? That could be 3 machines to build one car. If volume is 150k pr year pr machine. Model Y Europe would need roughly 3 sets of 3 gigacasting presses.

  • i usually use 80% as the utilization rate of equipment, allowing for maintenance, etc. So maybe 1.0-1.2MM vehicles per year.

  • Could somebody please explain the yield controversey?

  • My grandfather was telling me about a facility Tesla built between Houston and Galveston where they just build Tesla batteries it was on their local news nothing national tho.

  • Tesla intend to start Berlin with structural battery pack so I'd expect the middle to be casted. That said this is likely an easier casting that may not require a gigapress. I anticipated that they would do front and rear castings right from the start but this may not be the case for any number of reasons. Unless other companies have the bespoke metal research arm they will struggle to make use of a gigapress so I suspect you are right assuming that they are all for Tesla. This 9 is just the ones from IDRA. If I recall correctly they have also ordered 1 or more from a Chinese manufacturer too. Probably only for Shanghai but who knows.

  • Dont we expect that in Berlin and Texas that 1/2 the casting machines are front casting and 1/2 for rear casting? In Fremont we have 2 casting machines both for rear. In Shanghai do we know how many? They are all rear I assume. I also assume the 9 doesnt count presses delivered in 2020. That would be the Fremont and Shanghai presses. Was the 1st in Berlin delivered in 2020 or 2021?

    • IDRA is owned by LK of Hong Kong which owns manufacturing plants in China under different brand names , apparently the Gigapresses in Shanghai are made by LK's China branches under their own name, so here we are talking IDRA Milan orders which are unlikely to supply Shanghai

  • Mower is the Lord of Podcasters.

  • If each press has interchangeable dies for front and back, model Y castings, throughput would be one-half.

  • For those that don't know, Elecrtek (sp) is owned by VW. This is why they do write craap.

  • Well, good timing on my IDRA giga press video. lol!

  • I think based on Elon’s comments is that Berlin would definitely be using the full front casting and structural battery pack. It’s part of why he’s been hedging Berlin’s ramp expectations as lots of new technology. It’s safer to assume that the capacity is half as they will do 2 castings. The real toss up is Texas, as I don’t know if he’s commented on whether the Texas Model Y would be the new technologies. I know he’s said it’s be a few years until Fremont and Shanghai are retrofitted. Wouldn’t make sense to do Texas in the old style to then retrofit in a few years.

  • 1000% that's a "regular" 6k ton giga press at Austin. It's been there since January and Idra announced the 8k ton order in March. It's getting a bit irritating seeing everyone *state as fact* that it's the 8k press when all the evidence contradicts that conclusion. Too many people are projecting their desires onto this, stating it's the 8k for no other reason than they want their Cybertruck now.

  • Model Y SR is coming back!!

  • How casting and stamping energy consumption can be compared? Stamp 70 pieces + welding and assembly + transport + storage vs casting one piece?

  • 9 gigapress, but one for the back and for the front, so 1.5M/2 cars can be produced, depending on the factory where it is installed

  • Tesla is not getting anything unless they get unionist...the DC marxist want control

  • Best Tesla info!

  • Rob, I don't believe that Tesla is ever going to cast a structural battery component, just the front and rear of the car. Why? Because the structural battery is a torsion box sandwich design. The structure consists of a top plate, a bottom plate and the batteries glued in place between the two and giving the whole its required torsional rigidity. No need to cast any of the three components. There may also be some side rails to protect the batteries from side impacts, but those are best extruded, they don't need to be cast in a giga-casting machine either.

  • For the EV inventive I think they should reduce by a percentage each month till expired

  • More Giga presses once proven feasible

  • What could be a minimum target price per share for the next 2 years 🤔

  • Elon will be looking at 2022 production numbers by now which should be around 2 million annually by end 2022.

  • TSLA 🧐 400$

  • Great show, Rob! Thanks for covering the Tes-Fringe.

  • Thank you for the content as always Rob

  • The whole word is finally rapidly moving towards EV, now the government wants to help. God help us. 1970, 2010, and now 2021. Every Tom Dick and Harry will come to get a piece of the pie then disappear when China completely takes over and the credits go away. And if Biden thinks we are going to take the lead away from China than I don't know what he's smoking. All this bill will do is make China stronger. Even Sandy Munro says we are about to be invaded by a wave of Chinese EVs as we were by the Japanese ICE cars in the 1980s.

  • A tax credit is not the best way to encourage and support EV purchases as it excludes buyers that do not have the high tax levels. If you don't pay $10,000 in Federal income tax, then you can't take advantage of the entire credit. Wouldn't it be nice that more modest income earners could afford a EV?

  • excellent

  • :aesome:

  • Do you think if I purchase a M3 today and the tax credit comes within this year after my purchase, will be retroactive?

  • All true. Just they might need several casting machines each doing a different of the car (like rear and front). Not all are capable of doing the whole car at once.

  • Are the IDRA giga press machines exclusive to Tesla? I imagine that they are not open to sell these devices to GM?

    • @Big Dream Without that special proprietary alloy the casting would need to be annealed for strength which with a casting that size leads to substantial warping and distortion which leads to massive problems

    • They're an independent company, so can sell their machines to anyone. However, Tesla is certainly their biggest customer, therefore they'll want to keep Tesla happy. If Tesla is willing to buy as many machines as IDRA is able to produce, I would expect IDRA to accommodate them. Also, the _machines_ aren't proprietary, but Tesla does use a proprietary metal alloy when casting.

  • Thoughts on Tesla acquiring IDRA?

    • @Denise Lam Everything's for sale, at the right price.

    • i dont think so. IDRA is a subsidiary company of LK Technology Holdings

  • 6:02 The key word in this Fact Sheet is “proposing”. Let’s wait and see what the actual numbers are before we get too excited. Biden made a lot of proposals and promises during his election campaign. Not many of these have come to fruition though. Let’s hope that the important ones do. Another action-packed video from Rob. Cheers!

  • Best Tesla channel out there, thank you!

  • Huge news update!! Thank you for sharing Rob 👍🏽

  • Hi Rob, any info or news that you found on the building in giga shanghai to supposedly build more superchargers?

  • When doing injection moulding with plastic, sometimes certain prefabricated pieces are put in the mould and integrated through the casting. I wonder if that is possible with aluminium?

    • It might weaken the structural integrity of the part...

  • Casting allows variation of thickness which makes it possible to optimise strength and stiffness better than with pressed sheet metal. Maybe the use of more aluminium could have some benefits when it comes to dulling sound too? I think we will see more of the skeleton cast with glued on simpler panels.

  • Die casting of large body sections seem to be superior in most aspects. I expect Tesla to apply this technology to even larger sections and more parts in general. I also expect that all those legacy companies that are supposedly "catching up" need to order casting machines too. Maybe that is what IDRA referred to? I mean if VW wants to be competitive they cannot stick to inferior production methods.

  • 👍

  • Ron Baron had previously stated Tesla had ordered 11 of them. I believe this was in a CNBC interview where he was sat in his back garden on Skype IIRC. Don't have the link to hand at the moment. He did not give a timeline though, that's new.

  • Nice job.

  • I think the best assumption we could do is that since Elon has said that Berlin is going to use structural battery pack then front and rear castings are also needed (seems logic since they've designed it that way. Now, Berlin needs 8 Giga Presses so we could assume 2 for rear, 2 for front and 2 for battery pack casting, that means 250k/500k.

    • @Marcello Marinelli I understand there will be a battery pack, but considering that it will, by it's nature, need to be made of multiple parts I don't, myself, see any use for a giant casting machine. BUT, who knows, we will see! :)

    • @Lensflare Deviant It's just a guess but they have to do it somehow, also on battery day there's a gif they showed of a structure inside of wich were going to be put the cells, but we'll see :)

    • I don't think they'll need a casting machine to make the battery pack at all.

  • Going forward (the new structural pack architecture), each vehicle needs 2 castings, front and rear. You should probably halve your predicted numbers based on casting machines alone. Nvrmind. You mentioned it later in the video. Sorry Rob.

  • EU emissions trading credits at ATH on Tuesday! Go green or go bust!

  • You have to assume that some of the orders are for Chinese competitors

    • @J . P Goodwin WAY off topic here. We are talking about Tesla’s lead and the ability of the competition to catch up.

    • @Utahskiing1 Those that forget or ignore their history are doomed to forever repeat their same mistakes and with a poor outcome

    • J . P Goodwin the other automakers aren’t taking the transition to electric vehicles as seriously as the Chinese automakers are. It’s interesting how you went from “they don’t have have the alloy” to “duh” of course they took samples. Now let’s take that last little logical step that if they took samples, they know the right composition and thus can use that composition to make the right alloy. We don’t have to wander off into random irrelevancies about enemies and marines. Tesla still has a lead but let’s not kid ourselves, the competition in China is no more than a year behind at most.

    • @Utahskiing1 Duhhh Even Sandy Munro has reported on that, every OEM in the world is doing the same thing so don't just point the finger at the Chinese. That has been standard practice since Adam was a boy. But then of course there has to be a PC enemy to unite the sheep rather than have them actually use the brains they were born with and ascertain who their real enemies who may well be within their own countries are. Read up on America's most awarded Marine. General Smedley D Butler for a clue

    • @J . P Goodwin let’s guess how long after the first of the Shanghai Teslas made with that alloy was driven off the factory property before it was up on a lift having samples taken from the chassis to determine the exact metallurgical makeup. I will guess 15 minutes.

  • Are you considering the front casting also?

  • If northern Italy would be on its own we would be on US level, idra Is 20 km away from my home

  • gigacasting mashines will propably replace current capacity

  • EV credits question. Anyone planning to do a fleet purchase for robotaxi, will you be able to get any credits? I’m presuming most will have a LLC for the company. Will you have to prove 1 for 1 replacement for ICE taxi? If this is for any US made EV and no limits on how many you purchase then that would be huge.

  • I don't think the new incentive would do anything to Tesla's sales, because they are production limited anyway and will be for years. But it will allow them to increase their margin and make a bit more money. Or a metric fuckton of money if they take a large share of the incentive, but that's unlikely.

  • Remember that Fremont is only using the gigapress for the rear section at the moment, but Elon has said that the long term plan is to do the front as well. So probably two separate gigapresses to make both parts for one car (doubt they would install them in such a way as to have to retool them constantly).

  • Huge potential. Elon did say they are casting the front and rear sections so assuming of the 8 giga presses, 4 are dedicated to front and rear respectively, it will represent 1.5M / 2 production rate

  • Drone flyover at Fremont - how embarrassing would it be to lose your drone inside the gigapress and have it end up a part of one of the future cars? LOL

  • I curious to who gets to work with you(r team)! Hope I can be part of the team

  • Listening to you with my morning coffee from France . Part of my morning routine now ;-) Thanks

  • such great amazing news. all in $tsla !

  • Regarding the gigapress, in Berlin they will have one casting for the front and one for the back. So your number would have to be cut in half? But the cycle time will probably go down improving the rate.

  • Casting of the cybertruck stainless steel?

    • You get a lot of the strength from the cold work so I doubt they would. Likely just score and fold.

  • don't they need 2 castings per car so not 9x170.000 instead 9x85.000 additional cars ? and if they change the production to casting a portion of that replaces the production that is installed now, instead of being completely additional. my take 9x85.000*0,85 uptime = 650.000 cars with dual castings + they already have 2 casting machines? so 835.000 cars with 2 castings each. If the new machines have fsater cycle time add another 10-20% to that so 900.000 to 1.000.000 stretch which aligns roughly with elons Email.

  • Allowing conservative down time, would give 125k per year for x2 MY presses. 8 presses, so 125k x 4 = well well well 500k Model Y from Berlin!

  • Known from the plans, there will be 8 presses at Berlin, and these cars will have front and rear casting.

  • Just one important difference between this podcast and dozens of other pro-Tesla podcasts: you capture the whole story and separate fact from speculation in a definitive manner. Discussing the 50% saving for charging at Superchargers during (presumably) off-peak hours but adding that Tesla is a business which tends to try and recapture this "gift" is an example of telling the whole story. Thanks again for your great podcast.

  • The cold delivery makes me keep looking for a warm delivery of information. Dialog is fast and conveys more of an indifferent attitude. Pretend you are with family in your kitchen...

    • If you want manic energy, go find Gali at HyperChange. Rob is known to deliver "just the facts."

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